Monday, October 21, 2013

China's corn output to reach 215 million tonnes in 2013/2014

According to forecasts from the National Grain & Oils Information Center and the China Food Industry Association, China's corn output may reach 215 million tonnes in 2013/2014, 7 million tonnes more than in 2012/2013. The increase in corn output may result in a decrease in the price of corn. According to CCM's data, the output and the annual market price of corn in China maintained an uptrend during 2009/2010-2012/2013.

Affected by the corn harvest in Oct. 2013, the pressure from imported corn and the depressed corn deep-processing industry, the domestic market is facing an oversupply of corn. 

According to China Customs' data, the average corn import price was USD306.3/t in the first eight months of 2013 in China. It was much lower than China's average market price of corn which was USD380.5/t. During this period, China imported more than 1.6 million tonnes of corn, which was already a relatively large number.

As for the corn deep-processing industry, it saw a downtrend. Xu Jiawan, the manager of the corn purchasing department of Cargill Biochemical (Songyuan) Co., Ltd. (Songyuan Cargill), said that the overall operating rate of the corn deep-processing industry was less than 50%. For instance, the average operating rate of domestic corn starch enterprises was presently as low as about 46%, owing to the oversupply and the weak demand for corn starch from downstream industries. Similarly, the average operating rate of alcohol enterprises is also relatively low.

Liu Xiaoran, deputy Secretary-General of the corn branch of the China Food Industry Association, estimates that domestic corn consumption will be just 197.5 million tonnes in 2013/2014, which is much less than the output of corn.

Due to the oversupply of corn, the market price of corn harvested in autumn may decrease and it may be even lower than the government's corn purchasing price for temporary reserves. Moreover, the overall quality of corn is not as high as before, due to the severe weather this year, which may also suppress the market price of corn.  

Recently, the purchasing prices of corn set by some leading corn deep-processing enterprises in Northeast China have decreased compared with those in 2012. For instance, on Sept. 25, 2013, Changchun Jincheng Corn Development Co., Ltd. (Changchun Jincheng), a subsidiary of Changchun Dacheng Industrial Group Co., Ltd., set its corn purchasing price at USD341.5/t (RMB2,100/t), USD9.8/t (RMB60/t) less than that in 2012. On Sept. 28, Songyuan Cargill set its corn purchasing price as the same as that of Changchun Jincheng, but the price was USD16.3/t (RMB100/t) less than that of last year. These companies' purchasing prices are all below the corn purchasing price for the temporary corn reserves set by the National Development and Reform Commission of China (NDRC).

As early as July 3, 2013, the NDRC announced that China would increase the purchasing price for temporary corn reserves in 2013/2014. The purchasing prices of corn (third-grade of the national standards) will be USD366.3/t (RMB2,260/t), USD366.3/t (RMB2,260/t), USD363.0/t (RMB2,240/t) and USD359.8/t (RMB2,220/t) in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang (the main corn planting areas in China) respectively, which are all USD19.4/t (RMB120/t) higher than the prices of 2012. (For more details, please refer to Corn Products China News 1307: China increases temporary reserve price of corn in 2013/2014).

Source: Corn Products China News issued by CCM in October.

Table of Contents of Corn Products China News 1310:
China's corn output to reach 215 million tonnes in 2013/2014
Global Sweeteners'net loss increases to USD14.2 million, H1 2013
China's market price of VD3 rebounds sharply, Sept. 2013
China's lowest purchasing price of wheat to rise by RMB120/t in 2014
Low operating rate of soybean crushers relates to tight supply of soybean
Price update of corn products, Oct. 2013
China Agri-Industries' performance of biochemical and bio-fuels segment maintains stable, H1 2013
China's xylitol export value up but price down, Jan.-Aug. 2013
Xiwang Foodstuffs performs well in H1 2013
International and domestic factors together impact China's sucrose price in Q4 2013
Chinese corn products Imp. & Exp., Aug. 2013
Sixth International Corn Industry Conference holds in Nanchang on Sept.
COFCO Corporation to build Guangdong Grain & Oil Industrial Park in Dongguan
Zhaoqing Coruscate's 600,000t/a starch syrup project launches in Chuzhou
Sales revenue from Star Lake Bioscience's feed additives declines by 32.62% YoY, H1 2013
Global Bio-chem suffers gross loss of USD27.63 million, H1 2013

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