Monday, August 1, 2011

RMB Appreciation and Heightened Interest Rate Aggravate Glyphosate Industry

July 29, 2011, CCM - The vulnerable Chinese glyphosate industry has been suffering from the increasing cost in financing and the loss caused by the RMB appreciation, and many glyphosate producers are on the edge of survival, according to CCM’s July issue of Glyphsoate China Monthly Report.

On July 6, 2011, People's Bank of China announced the decision of implementing new interest rate from July 7, 2011, which is the third time for China to heighten interest rate this year. The purpose of the third consecutive raise in interest rate is to control inflation and soaring CPI.

According to the new interest rate, the loan interest rate of long-term loan (more than five years) reaches 7.05% annually, up 18.69% over the corresponding period last year (5.94%).

Obviously, the increased loan interest rate will heighten the cost of glyphosate. Providing the investment in 10,000t/a glycine route glyphosate is USD10 million (Investment in IDAN route will be higher), and the loan interest will increase by USD0.111 million (10, 000,000 * (7.05%.-5.94)). Calculated by the current operating rate of 30%, the increased cost of one tonne of glyphosate technical caused by the increased loan interest rate could reach USD37 (111,000/3,000).

The decreased USD exchange rate against RMB, or so-called RMB appreciation, has also exerted great pressure on Chinese glyphosate industry at present.

RMB exchange rate against USD had seen a sharp uptrend in the past one year. On July 20, 2011, the central parity exchange rate between USD and RMB dropped to 6.4592, compared with that of 6.7812 in July 20, 2010.

Providing glyphosate technical price is RMB22,000/t, and the difference of one tonne of glyphosate technical is USD161.73 (22,000/6.4592 - 22,000/6.7812) when computed by the exchange rate of 6.7812 and 6.4592.

Obviously, oversea buyers are unwilling to completely burden the Chinese glyphosate exporters' loss caused by RMB appreciation or USD depreciation, and thus the loss would only be shouldered by both exporters and importers or completely burdened by domestic manufacturers.
Therefore, compared with the corresponding period last year,

glyphosate technical manufacturers may shoulder increased cost of about USD162 and USD37 caused by RMB appreciation and raised loan interest rate respectively in selling one tonne of glyphosate technical.

Now the glyphosate price is undervalued; the RMB appreciation and raised loan interest rate have posed much pressure to glyphosate industry, let alone the increasing cost in raw material and manpower. As for the current glyphosate technical producers, any other raised cost may become the last straw that break the camel's back.

Content of Glyphsoate China Monthly Report July 2011:
Nantong Jiangshan suffers from profit loss in H1 2011
Zhejiang Wynca: Endless technology innovation secures its leading position in glyphosate industry
Monsanto's Roundup incentive program under investigation by SEC
ChemChina to complete its acquisition to MAI in September 2011
APG considered as promising substitution of tallow amine adjuvant
Joint application of glyphosate and paraquat
RMB appreciation and heightened interest rate aggravate glyphosate industry
Glycine destiny tied up with glyphosate
Glyphosate price slightly decreases in July 2011
Glyphosate export volume decreases in May 2011

Glyphosate China Monthly Report, a monthly publication issued by CCM International on 20th of every month, will keep track of latest dynamics, hotspots and competitiveness analysis, and forecasts on market trends of China’s glyphosate industry.

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