Monday, May 20, 2013

Yellow phosphorus price to show downside

Price of yellow phosphorus is expected to keep downward trend and stay at the bottom till Oct., 2013, primarily due to the flat demand and seasonal production cost cut, according to Phosphorus Industry China Monthly Report, the monthly newsletter issued by CCM.

In the wake of the weakening downstream consumption, China's demand for yellow phosphorus finally ended its high consumption growth during 2008–2011.

China saw a high growth in domestic demand for yellow phosphorus as of 2008. From 2008 to 2011, the apparent consumption volume of yellow phosphorus increased by a compound annual growth rate of 5.5% in China.

However, the apparent consumption volume of yellow phosphorus dropped to 797,241 tonnes in 2012. Moreover, China's yellow phosphorus apparent consumption volume touched 103,803 tonnes in the first quarter of 2013, decreasing by 14.05% year-on-year as compared with that in the corresponding period of last year.

Generally speaking, the price of yellow phosphorus will remain on the downside with the coming wet season (June–Sept.), because the production cost of yellow phosphorus showed a 5–10% seasonal decline along with a price cut in electricity retail price during this period. However, the yellow phosphorus price is expected to usher in a decline in advance in 2013.

According to certain yellow phosphorus producers in Yunnan Province, they were orally informed that the retail price of electricity in May would be charged in line with that in wet season. In this case, the price of yellow phosphorus will be on the way down a month earlier than usual.

However, some yellow phosphorus purchasers have indicated that the main yellow phosphorus production province in China—Yunnan Province—generally suffers serious drought during the regular wet season, which causes wide electric power shortages and thus hold up the production of yellow phosphorus. Therefore, they are still worried that the drought might reverse the price decline.

Fortunately, Yunnan Province has made some preparations to resist droughts. In addition, the local water authority has advised that the current volumes of water in storage are more than that of previous years. Relatively speaking, these have reduced the possibility of electric power shortages in Yunnan Province.

Editor's Note
Headlines of Phosphorus Industry China Monthly Report 1305
Phosphorus Ore
Phosphorus mining project moves smoothly in Mabian County
Yuntianhua's restructuring is expected to be accelerated
Yellow Phosphorus
Yellow phosphorus price to show downside
Phosphate Fertilizer
Wengfu's phosphogypsum utilization technique attracts overseas institute
Batian makes smooth progress in its APP fertilizer project
China's phosphate fertilizer to usher in export peak amid uncertain prospect
Fine Phosphate Chemicals
YPC's feed grade phosphate project to be put into operation
Polyrocks and NIMTE to jointly develop phosphorus-based fire-retardant material
Global Insight
Performance of phosphate fertilizer firms varied in Q1 2013
Supply & Demand
Market review of prime phosphate chemical in April 2013 10
International trade of phosphate chemicals in March 2013
Price Update
Price monitoring of some phosphate chemicals in April 2013

Phosphorus Industry China Monthly Report, issued by CCM on 15th, keeps providing the latest company dynamics related to China’s phosphorus industry, and market analysis on supply and demand, import and export as well as global insight.

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