Unlike
China's, the phosphate fertilizer export outlook of Morocco, headquarter for
the OCP Group SA (OCP), is brighter in price as well as in inventory. Although
FOB prices of OCP's DAP exports to Europe suffered a decrease of around USD10/t
to USD15/t in early Sept., the FOB price of OCP's DAP small-lot exports to
Europe still held at about USD440/t. Furthermore, after scaling back production
to meet a weaker demand, OCP has announced that its phosphate fertilizer
inventory has cleared out. Meanwhile, OCP's strategy of setting phosphate
fertilizer prices according to nutrient content may draw further attention from
importers in Latin America, especially from smaller traders. The result of
OCP's production control may also have its drawbacks, however. From Jan. to
Aug., in Latin America's MAP market, OCP's market share fell to 46%, while
Russia's increased to 31% and China's also increased significantly, due to a
low export prices strategy.
In
addition, according to statistics from The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) in Aug.,
the market performance of MAP in the US was slightly better than the bleak
situation of DAP. In order to cater to the relatively lower demand for MAP than
for DAP, some Chinese fertilizer manufacturers have turned to producing MAP
from DAP.
In
China, the approaching end of the fertilizer export window (May 16–Oct. 15) and
a consequent reflux of inventory in ports may further exacerbate the
oversupply. It has been reported that FOB prices of China's 64% DAP have
decreased to USD368/t–USD380/t in Sept.
India,
the world's largest phosphate fertilizer importer, saw a 30%–40% decrease YoY
in its DAP import volume from China from May to Sept.
The
main reasons for that were cuts in India's government subsidies for the
purchasing of fertilizer, the ongoing depreciation of the INR and a high
phosphate fertilizer inventory in the beginning of 2013. However, on Sept. 19
the exchange rate of USD/INR improved to 61.835 from a historical low of 68.85
on Aug. 26, which may slightly extend the profit margin of Indian phosphate
fertilizer importers, and stimulate imports from China and Saudi Arabia. It would
seem that some international phosphate fertilizer suppliers are trying to
maintain the CFR price of DAP exported to India above USD400/t, rather than let
it decline further after the closing of China's phosphate fertilizer export
window.
Latin
American, including Brazilian phosphate fertilizers faced a dimmer outlook. The
CFR price of Brazilian DAP hovered around USD420/t in Sept., and the
correspondent FOB price reached USD385/t in the Tampa port.
Pakistan
is expected to be one of the most active phosphate fertilizer importers in Oct.
The country is still in need of 100,000–150,000 tonnes of DAP, and its CFR
price is currently quoted at USD400/t–USD410/t.
Editor's Note
Headline
Phosphorus Ore
Xingfa
Group and Wengfu Group set up new phosphorus R&D centers
Yellow
Phosphorus
Yuntianhua's
profits and revenue down in H1 2013
Fine
Phosphate Chemicals
Yuntianhua
launches another reorganisation to peel off its glass fibre assets
Ten
organophosphorus pesticides to be banned, effective Nov. 2013
Global Insight
Global
phosphate fertilizer market to maintain steady in the rest of 2013
Brief News
Kunming
Niumi to launch a microporous membrane program
Gansu
Jingtianfu launches a phosphogypsum comprehensive ultilization program
Supply
& Demand
Market
review of prime phosphate chemicals in Sept. 2013
Import & Export
International
trade of phosphate chemicals in Aug. 2013
Price Update
Price
monitoring of some phosphate chemicals in Sept. 2013
Phosphorus
Industry China Monthly Report, issued by CCM on 15th,
keeps providing the latest company dynamics related to China’s phosphorus
industry, and market analysis on supply and demand, import and export as well
as global insight.
CCM is dedicated to market research in China
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